Edward R. Dewey – How To Make A Cycle Analysis
1955. Approx. 630 pages, with charts. This how-to manual on cycle analysis was written by Edwin R. Dewey in 1955 as a correspondence course. It provides step-by-step instructions on the elements of cycle analysis, including how to identify, measure, isolate and evaluate cycles. The most elaborate cycle course ever written, by the founder of the Foundation For The Study of Cycles. This course had a limited release in the 50's at a price of $350.00, but has been almost unknown since then.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I-IV Elementary Statistics: Definitions; Review of Arithmetic; Machines; Short Cuts; Checking
Tricks; Preparation of Data for Cycle Analysis; Charting for Cycle Analysis; Arithmetic
Charts; Ratio Charts; Interpolation; Averages; Arithemetic Means; Geometric Means;
Medians; Medes; Which Average to Use; Index Numbers - How to Make & Use in Cycle
Analysis; Tabulation; Logarithms & How to Use Them in Cycle Analysis; Graphic Logarithms;
How To Make & Use Moving Average Trends for Cycle Analysis; Geometric Moving Averages;
Moving Medians; How To Remove Trend For Cycle Analysis.
V. Cycle Analysis. How to make a cycle analysis of a series of numbers - a detailed outline. The
forces creating time series. Series. Synthesis. The proper way to combine cycles. How to
combine growth, periodic and random components. Analysis. How to separate growth, periodic,
& random components. Reversing cycles.
VI. How to get hints of cycles. Inspection. Counting intervals. Thumbing. The Graduated scale. The
time chart.
VII. How to make & use the periodic table to reveal the typical or average shape, strength, and
timing of the cycle. How to rotate the periodic table to compensate for trend. Use of color in the
periodic table.
VIII. How to use a periodic table to determine the length of the cycle.
IX. How to position the cycle.
X. Randoms: Three ways to minimize them.
XI. The effects of moving averages upon trend, upon cycles & upon random numbers.
XII. Deviations of numbers from moving averages of various lengths. How to correct for distortion.
XIII. Three ways to definitize the cycle. Definitizing cycles of integral length and of fractional length.
Determining the calendar timing of a cycle.
XIV. How to make a periodogram.
XV. Sine & cosine curves and how to fit them.
XVI. How to make a simple harmonic analysis. How to make a multiple harmonic analysis. Use and
limitations of harmonic analysis.
XVII. How to compute moving percentages, moving ratios, and moving differences. Their effect
upon cycles. How to use them to detect hidden cycles.
XVIII The straight line trend. When to use it for cycle analysis. A short cut method for computing.
XIX. How to use the periodic tables to separate one cycle from another.
XX. Weighted moving averages. How to use them to reveal h idden cycles.
XXI. How to make a Streiff Analysis.
XXII. How to determine trend. How to project trend & cycles into the future.
XXIII. Tests for significance of cycles.
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